Commodities & Metals

Why Many Steel Stocks May Avoid the US Steel Earnings Black Hole

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United Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) has delivered a major interruption for its investors hoping to win off of more protection for U.S. steel makers and for needing steel for endless infrastructure projects. The steel giant was supposed to be profitable but delivered a loss to shareholders in its quarterly report. The reaction has literally removed one-quarter of U.S. Steel’s market value and is bleeding over into multiple steel and advanced metals stocks.

What investors have to be concerned with here is that U.S. Steel historically has been a leader in steel. Now it has diminished in its importance, as its prominence has fallen while other companies have become more important. Steel stocks had been major beneficiaries of the so-called Trump bump due to tariff and infrastructure hopes. To prove the point further: U.S. Steel used to be a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a member of the S&P 500. That was then.

A glance at other metals earnings shows the story of U.S. Steel seems to be more company-specific rather than sectorwide. That may help the other steel companies and advanced metals companies from falling into what in decades past might have been a sectorwide earnings black hole.

U.S. Steel was supposed to report earnings of $0.34 per share, but its adjusted loss came in at $0.83 per share. The net loss was even worse, at $180 million, or $1.03 per share. The company also generated negative operating cash flow of $135 million for first quarter of 2017 that was mostly tied to an investment in working capital in the quarter.

Some items can be attributed to this awful report, but revenues of $2.72 billion were far shy of the $2.93 billion that was expected. While the sales for the first quarter of 2017 were far less than expected, they were still higher than the $2.65 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 and looked even better against the $2.341 billion from the first quarter of 2016.

It will next to impossible for U.S. Steel to regain its lost ground from the first quarter as well. The company now expects that full 2017 earnings will be closer to $1.50 per share. Analysts on average were calling for $3.05 per share.

U.S. Steel shares were last seen trading down 24.4% at $23.53 on almost 49 million shares approaching 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. That is already 30 million shares more than a full day’s average trading volume. U.S. Steel has a 52-week range of $12.77 to $41.83. U.S. Steel’s market cap is now down to about $4 billion.

Here is a look at how the shadow is bleeding over on other U.S. steel players, but not than the international giants located outside of the United States.

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) was actually up after analyst commentary on its own post-earnings reaction. It was last seen trading up 2.6% at $6.56, after trading as high as $6.57 earlier. AK Steel has a 52-week trading range of $3.31 to $11.39, with a consensus analyst price target of $9.61. The company has a total market cap of $2 billion.

Commercial Metals Co. (NYSE: CMC) was up 0.7% at $19.13 on Wednesday morning, and trading volume was light. It has a consensus price target of $21.11 and a market cap of $2.2 billion. The stock trades within a 52-week range of $14.58 to $24.64.

Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) was trading up 1% at $61.56 in light volume trading. Nucor has a total market cap of $19.5 billion. The consensus price target is $68.23, and the 52-week range is $44.81 to $68.00.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) was last seen up 0.6% at $79.62 on light trading volume. The 52-week range is $65.10 to $88.58, and the consensus price target is $89.63. Reliance has a total market cap of $5.7 billion.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) was down just 0.4% at $36.48 on Wednesday morning. It has a consensus analyst target of $42.62 and a market cap of $8.8 billion. The stock has traded between $22.62 and $40.17 in the past year.

Worthington Industries Inc. (NYSE: WOR) was trading down 0.2% at $43.86 in rather light trading volume. Worthington has a total market cap of $2.8 billion. The consensus price target is $45.00, and the 52-week range is $34.21 to $62.44.

One additional issue that may be worth noting is that U.S. Steel, after a review of policies, changed its accounting method for property, plant and equipment from the group method of depreciation to the unitary method of depreciation. That effective date was January 1, 2017. Still, company said that its 2017 estimated impact is an approximately $175 million decrease in operating expense.

The company’s statement on the dismal quarter was rather long. Mario Longhi, U. S. Steel’s chief executive officer, said:

While our segment results improved by over $200 million compared with the first quarter of 2016, operating challenges at our Flat-Rolled facilities prevented us from benefiting fully from improved market conditions. However, we continue to be encouraged by the strength of our European business and we are also seeing improving energy markets. Overall, improved commercial conditions more than offset higher raw materials and energy costs and increased maintenance and outage spending driven by our asset revitalization efforts. The execution of our asset revitalization program and the continued implementation of reliability centered maintenance practices are critical to achieving sustainable improvements in our operating performance and costs. We have built the financial strength and resources to move forward more aggressively on these initiatives, and remain focused on providing the service and solutions that will create value for our stockholders, customers, employees, and other stakeholders.

Longhi further commented on guidance and the outlook for the rest of 2017:

Market conditions have continued to improve, and we will realize greater benefits as these improved conditions are recognized more fully in our future results. We are focused on long-term and sustainable improvements in our business model that will position us to continue to be a strong business partner that creates value for our customers. This remains a cyclical industry and we will not let favorable near-term business conditions distract us from taking the outages we need to revitalize our assets in order to achieve more reliable and consistent operations, improve quality and cost performance, and generate more consistent financial results. We issued equity last August to give us the financial strength and liquidity to position us to establish an asset revitalization plan large enough to resolve our issues, and to see that plan through to completion. As we get deeper into our asset revitalization efforts, we are seeing opportunities for greater efficiency in implementing our plan. We believe we can create more long-term and sustainable value by moving faster now.  We have made the strategic decision to accelerate our efforts to resolve the issues that challenge our ability to achieve sustainable long-term profitability. We believe our objective to achieve economic profit across the business cycle will result in true value creation for all of our stakeholders over the long-term.

Note one more key issue for active traders and value investors. Companies that provide serious disappointments and see their shares get gutted to this extent rarely see their shares pop back instantly. It can sometimes take many quarters or even years for shareholders to regain the trust of companies after such unexpected falls. This is why value investors have to follow certain rules and avoid some of the critical value investor traps.

I can’t help myself:  For an outside reference for how large U.S. Steel was in the past versus now, “The Godfather Part II” had Hyman Roth telling Michael Corleone about the mafia: “We’re bigger than U.S. Steel.” Apparently most of the other metals companies are now too.

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