We have just gotten the Labor Department’s measure of retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index. The September reading still has inflation running tame, and many will be watching for more of the Producer Price Index data as a result to try to interpret when suppliers and wholesalers will have to finally pass inflation on down to the public at the consumer level. The September CPI came in at +0.2% versus a Bloomberg consensus reading of +0.1% expected. The core CPI, ex-food and energy, rose also by +0.2% versus the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +0.1%.
These figures are still far short of any sinister inflationary scenario. But with the mountain of money that has been printed, with gold over $1,000 and with oil back over $75.00, the inflation-bugs are getting more and more ammo to support their thesis. The feeling is that inflation is not yet here. Yet.
JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 15, 2009