Black Friday is under 48 hours away.  We have seen much data and much analysis out there on the topic, but there are two fairly easy conclusions here…. well, make it three.  First is that consumers are going to get deals galore.  The add-in third notion, or the second, is that inventories at stores will be very low and many items may have to be bought online (with free or low-priced shipping to boot).  But the big conclusion here is that it seems a foregone conclusion that the great deals and (quasi-) price matching and free shipping offered by retailers are still likely to create margin pressure for the retailers even if they have strong sales.

This is a sampling review of some of the promotions from major retailers.  No particular order has been given.  Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are worth noting, but the major retailers featured are Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN).

Yesterday my inbox had a very un-Apple Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) advertisement.  While most companies and retailers are getting more fine-tuned, Apple was very vague and the exception. It was nothing short of people drinking on the job and trying to come up with a tease.  They talked about the big sale for Apple… Yet there was nothing in it as a holiday shopping event.  Apple isn’t going to lose customers for its trick, but it was a lame attempt to lure you into the online store and its retail stores.  I would almost have rather them called me  a loser for not buying anything from them yet.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is showcasing “5 AM to 11 AM in-store specials” for Friday only that will vary from around the country.  Mine  is offering a 32″ Emerson LCD HDTV for $248, a 42″ Emerson Plasma HDTV for $448, and a Sony Bravia 46″ LCD HDTV for $798 in TVs.  Wal-Mart already started the toy blitz to keep parents from going to Toys R Us.  Online it has Nintendo Wii 2-for $30 game bundles or a Wii value bundle for $269.  The cheap decorative Christmas tree is the Holiday Time Unlit 6.5′ Jackson Spruce Artificial Christmas Tree for $40.00 and $0.97 shipping. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is of course a competitor to EVERYONE, but the real war now looks to be Amazon vs. Wal-Mart for Joe Public… and that means you as a consumer will win.

Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) must still be flooded with TV’s. It  knows cheap TV’s are a way to  give you a TV and sell you game systems, recorders, accessories, and of course a wall-mount and installation.  Its ‘4 Days Only’ special has a cheap laptop of Gateway NV5332u Laptop Package with Wireless Mouse & Laptop Case for $429.97 and the cheap netbook in the store is the Gateway LT2005u netbook with 10.1″ LED-backlit widescreen for only $229.99. Best Buy’s unadvertised Black Friday Panasonic HDTV price is $797.99 for a TC-P50X1 50″ Class 720p plasma HDTV with free shipping.  Its 32″ Dynex LCD HDTV is $299.99.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is showing more specials now compared to last week on our first look.  It has a Proscan 40″ 1080p LCD HDTV $499.99 After $100 off.  Its hot buy netbook is the Acer Aspire One 10.1″ Netbook with an Intel Atom processor for $229.97.  They are advertising a 40″ LCD Samsung TV for $649.99 after $200 off and a hot buy Proscan 26″ LCD HDTV for $279.97.  Can you use the food stamps for these specials?

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is still offering free shipping for online purchases of $50.00 or more on 100,000 items.  It was offering $3 appliance deals for toasters, coffee makers, and slow roasters.  Its 5 AM 2-DAY SALE shows some features as Nikon digital cameras for $88, TomTom GPS Nav for $97 (save over $150) and $246 for a 32″ Westinghouse LCD HDTV.

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) has a 1-Day Pre-Thanksgiving sale for 10% to 25% off of selected kitchen electronics.  More importantly, it is offering $10 KOHL’S Cash for every $50 you spend now through November 29.  That Kohls’ Cash earned online will arrive by email by December 1.40% to 60% off selected diamond & Gemstone jewelry. Its Friday shopping is actually at 4 AM local time this Friday, so you might wonder how happy those sales people ar at 4:15 when you are asking them 20 questions.

Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) is offering Thanksgiving Sale free shipping on $99 purchases sitewide (online).  Macy’s is also said to be offering in-store savings pass for the Thanksgiving Sale of 25% to 50% on many select items, and an extra 20% or 15% off if you use your Macy;s card or a WOW! pass (again, select items).  Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) has effectively matched Macy’s with free shipping on orders of $100 or more and has its myriad of sale items.

What is interesting is that free shipping is still available but seems less advertised than it was last week.  There is also less focus on price matching, although this is still the policy of Wal-Mart, and Target has a policy for this that unfortunately seems to be changing or reacting to what has been seen elsewhere.

The deals are still plentiful for consumers this year.  It still seems like there will be margin pressure on many of the top retailers.  But for whatever it is worth on an opinion, price matching and free shipping seem less advertised or less featured online than just a week ago.

Happy Thanksgiving! And Happy Black Friday to you retailers!

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 25, 2009

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