GDP Surprise Revision Higher Shows 3% Growth

It is arguable over whether or not revisions matter too much on GDP numbers because the data is already so old.  Usually the importance only really matters if there is a stark change.  Today’s first revision to the Gross Domestic Product was put at +3.0%.  The prior report for the fourth quarter was at 2.8% in GDP growth.

Today’s figure from the Commerce Department compared to a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.8% and a Dow Jones target of 2.7%.

The growth rate was compared to growth of 1.8% in the third quarter of 2011.  While the prior report was positive, Bloomberg noted previously that the component mix was not favorable as inventories grew with demand decelerating with final sales to purchasers up marginally.

It is good to see the revision go higher, but keep in mind that today’s report is on the period from October 1 to December 31 in 2011.  We are now at February 29 and most companies have reported their fiscal year-end reports if they are on a calendar year.

JON C. OGG