Companies and Brands

Lumber Liquidators Business Holds Up Better Than Expected

People in the entertainment industry say that any publicity is good publicity. Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LL) would currently disagree with this notion. In fact, a spotlight on national television might have caused this company to miss out on its top line in its most recent business update. Still, the actual numbers being reported may show that things did not deteriorate as badly as many may have feared. As is common in controversial stocks, shares have been volatile around the announcement.

Lumber Liquidators gave an update on its sales for the first quarter of 2015. The company reported $260.0 million in sales, an increase of 5.6% from the same period of the previous year. Thomson Reuters has a consensus estimate for the first quarter sales as $256.80 million.

In terms of comparable stores, net sales for the quarter decreased 1.8% from last year, due to a 6.2% decrease in the average sale. This was partially offset by a 4.4% increase in the number of customers invoiced.

The company opened four new stores during the first quarter of 2015 and was operating a total of 356 locations at the end of March.

Gross margin is now expected to be in the range of 35.5% to 36.5% in the first quarter. That compares to 41.1% in the first quarter of 2014. The company said on the margin:

We believe the decline in gross margin is primarily due to adverse net shifts in sales mix, lower retail prices across product categories particularly in March, and certain planned changes in the marketing of the Company’s value proposition.

Cash and cash equivalents for the first quarter are expected to range from $41.5 million to $43.5 million, including $20.0 million in borrowings on the Lumber Liquidator’s revolving credit facility.

The full financial report for the first quarter is planned for release on April 29.

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Now, net sales in March were significantly weaker than trends in January and February. This was consistent with company’s expectations that were previously discussed in its last business update from early March. At that time, shares of the flooring retailer were driven down following a report from the CBS news show “60 Minutes.” The report alleged that the company’s products contained a high level of formaldehyde, a known carcinogen.

However the stock saw an upturn when activist investor Robert Chapman took a stake in the company. Chapman has taken a long position in the stock, despite its large fall, approximately 55% year to date. He is the CEO of Chapman Capital. As reported on CNBC, his position makes up about 15% of his fund, Chapman Capital, and consists partly of call options.

Short interest for Lumber Liquidators for the March 13 settlement date came in at 6.5 million shares, with one day to cover. The previous reading for late February was higher at 7.3 million, with 2.2 days to cover.

Janney Capital Markets opined on this matter after the business update. The firm said that normalization is already returning at Lumber Liquidators, and it maintained its Buy rating with a fair value target of $47 for the stock:

Our checks would suggest that within that trend, the last week of March improved from the prior week. Gross margins hit by discounting, worse than we thought, but the right decision by management for long and mid-term.

In the first hour of trading on Thursday, shares of Lumber Liquidators were initially up at over $34 and had been up close to 4% in premarket trading. In late morning trading, the stock was up fractionally at $33.27. With such volatility seen in the very recent past, it is very normal to expect wild trading swings any time there is news.

Lumber Liquidators shares have a 52-week trading range of $27.15 to $96.75, while the stock’s consensus analyst price target is still listed as $40.44.

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