Sysco Corp. (NYSE: SYY) has seen a big, late-Friday pop on what was first an exclusive report from CNBC that Trian’s Nelson Peltz has taken a 7% stake or so in the company. Then the 13D filing dropped on the SEC’s system confirming that a 7.08% stake (over 42 million shares) had been taken out by Trian.

While Peltz has been very influential and able to steer change in many key food-related operations before, something seriously needs to be asked here: Is activist math different from basic math?

Let’s all just forget about the actual report and consider how Sysco is valued today and what is in store for the company in the years ahead. Sysco already was deemed too monopolistic in its effort to win in the acquisition of U.S. Foods.

Even with the intent for Sysco to sell U.S. Foods facilities in 11 markets to Performance Food Group (PFG), Sysco could not secure regulatory approval to buy the company. Sysco then had to pay break-up fees of $300 million to U.S. Foods and $12.5 million to PFG.

As far as what a post-U.S. Foods Sysco has in store, the company already said that it will drive earnings through commercial and supply chain initiatives — category management and revenue management in its core business, and pursuing cost-saving opportunities. The company claimed that it had even taken out or avoided over $750 million in annual product and operating costs.

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Sysco also has said that it is committed to grow its free cash flow over time, will make prudent investments, will look for strategic acquisitions to enhance shareholder value, and is committed growing its dividend. Keep in mind that its yield was already 3.2% before the news pop, and keep in mind that Sysco was valued at 20 times expected earnings.

Furthermore, Sysco’s board announced with the U.S. Foods buyout termination that it now plans to spend an additional $3 billion to buy back shares. That was about 13% of its current outstanding shares at the time. That buyback is also outlined as being over the next two years. Sysco’s press release even noted:

The share repurchases will be in addition to the amount normally purchased to offset benefit plans and stock option dilution. The company intends to fund these purchases from new borrowings and cash flow from operations. The intent is to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion in shares in each of the next two years and, as part of the first year’s purchases, the company expects to put in place an accelerated share repurchase program. Sysco will continue to assess the merits of repurchasing shares over time… While we are very comfortable leveraging our balance sheet to enhance returns to our shareholders, we remain committed to maintaining a solid investment-grade credit rating and a strong balance sheet. A strong balance sheet provides the capacity and flexibility to continue to pursue strategic opportunities as they may arise. While we anticipate the possibility that our credit rating may be downgraded as a result of this new share repurchase program, we are comfortable operating our company with higher levels of debt.

This seems one of those times when activist investor math may be grossly different than the math of shareholders and analysts. Shares were around $38.50 beforehand, but shares popped to above $41.00 on the news. The prior 52-week range was $35.45 to $41.45.

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Here are some other things that stand out: the consensus analyst price target is $38.60, while the median analyst target from the 10 analysts covering Sysco is $39.50. The highest analyst target is $45.00.

What happens if Peltz says that he wants cost cuts, higher dividends or more stock buybacks, or has views on adding or eliminating outfits or efficiencies to boost earnings? The company can simply say, “Thanks, but we are already doing that.”

Is the world of investing reaching the point at which activists will have to seek out new ways to squeeze blood from a stone? This is one of those situations where everyone will have to wait and see what the real news and the real ambition is before casting a final judgment. After all, maybe activist math is different from the math elsewhere.

The 13D filing from Trian confirmed that Trian believes shares are undervalued and represent an attractive investment opportunity. Peltz has met with and engaged in discussions with the CEO and chairman of Sysco. A snapshot of the guts of the filing has been included below:

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