Massive Analyst Capitulation in Under Armour

Companies and Brands

Published: February 1, 2017 11:25 am

Last Updated: January 12, 2020 3:16 pm

Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UAA) saw its shares get crushed on Tuesday after the company reported earnings. Unfortunately this wasn’t the end of it. Analysts took this opportunity to take potshots at the company, and nearly across the board they slashed their price targets.

Out of the 35 analysts covering the stock, 24 cut their price targets, while eight downgraded the stock as company’s disappointing fourth quarter and outlook affected a sharp revision to analyst views. According to Reuters the stock began this week with a single Sell rating and 16 Buy ratings. Now Under Armour stands at three Sell ratings and 10 Buy ratings.

24/7 Wall St. has included some highlights from the earnings report, as well as what analysts are saying afterward.

The company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 and revenues of $1.3 billion. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters had called for $0.25 in EPS and $1.41 billion in revenue. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.24 on revenue of $1.17 billion.

The company’s class C common stock, Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA), posted EPS of $0.71, including a special dividend paid to class C shareholders in the second quarter. Class C shares have no voting rights. The company’s founder and CEO, Kevin Plank, owns all class B shares.

In terms of guidance, the company said it expects net revenues to rise by 11% to 12% in fiscal 2017 to $5.4 billion on a currency neutral basis. Analysts are calling for revenues of $6.05 billion.

Chip Molloy, chief financial officer, has decided to leave the company for personal reasons. Effective February 3, David Bergman, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance, will serve as acting CFO. Molloy will remain with the company in an advisory capacity to assist with the transition.

Merrill Lynch downgraded Under Armour to a Neutral rating with a $22 price objective. The firm noted that Under Armour has a more challenging top-line outlook, considering slowing apparel trends, especially in North America.

S&P equity downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold and lowered its price target to $20 from $36. The firm detailed in its report:

We trim ’17 EPS by $0.11 to $0.69, and start ’18’s at $0.81, noting a relatively tempered ’17 target for 11%-12% revenue growth, and margin pressures. Somewhat abruptly, the CFO is set to leave by the ended of this week. Q4 EPS of $0.23, vs. $0.24, was $0.02 shy of Capital IQ consensus estimate. Revenues rose 12% paced by international and footwear businesses, but paradoxically resulting in a 320 basis points contraction in gross margins (on mix shifts).

Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to an Underperform rating from Neutral and lowered its price target to $17 from $29. Credit Suisse commented in its report:

The combination of decelerating revenue momentum, particularly in the North America apparel category and a willingness to accelerate low-ROIC investments, such as Connected Fitness, growing owned retail, entering familyvalue distribution channels, and additional sponsorship commitments, looks to have halted the potential for near- and midterm earnings power. We remain cautious on Under Armour’s strategy to drive top-line growth at the expense of its return profile, as well as execution risk from management shakeups, and therefore view a more conservative multiple as appropriate. With lowered longterm revenue, earnings, and margin targets, we now expect 2018 operating income of $365 million versus our prior $595 million.

A few other analysts weighed in on Under Armour as well:

Barclays has an Overweight rating but lowered the price target to $20 from $50.
Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating and lowered the price target to $19 from $32.
FBR downgraded it to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $20 from $39.
Goldman Sachs has a Neutral rating and lowered the price target from $30 to $23.
Guggenheim has a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $25 from $40.
SunTrust Robinson also has a Buy rating and lowered the price target from $40 to $25.
Mizuho has a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $23 from $32.

Shares of Under Armour were last seen at $21.50, with a consensus analyst price target of $30.04 and a 52-week trading range of $20.80 to $47.95.

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