Research-In-Motion (RIMM), the famous Blackberry marketer, is having a rough time. After its stock made a huge run taking it up over 200% YTD in early November, it has sold off. Over the last month, shares are down 10% and the stock has underperformed Apple (AAPL) and Nokia (NOK) for that period.
Wall St. might argue that the shares are simply experiencing some profit-taking, but it may be more than that.
As Verizon Wireless opens up its network to new devices and software, it is not clear which device-makers will benefit from the ability of customers to migrate to the national cellular provider. An open systems does not necessarily help the Blackberry because of the new, competing products coming to market. Verizon pushes the Motorola (MOT) Q and Palm (PALM) Treo, both of which compete with the Blackberry. There is no way to know how this will turn out, but an open Verizon system is a wild card.
AT&T (T) Wireless is aggressively promoting the Samsung BlackJack. Sounds like Blackberry, but it isn’t. The new product could take RIMM share.
The Google (GOOG) open wireless device software, called Android, will certainly allow developers to put "Blackberry-like" features onto a number of handsets. Again, it is not clear that this hurts RIMM, but it is not likely to help it.
RIMM’s competitive position does not look as good as it did at the beginning of the year, and it is starting to show.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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