Consumer Electronics

Why Apple (AAPL) Won't Recover

There is too much bad news in the pipeline and no good news likely to appear over the next three months for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to recover much from its current level of $128.

The "unlock" rate for the iPhone has scared off a number of Wall St. investors. That percent is put at 20% by Citigroup and Apple gets nothing on the back-end from a carrier on any of those handsets.

Friedman Billings recently reported that its channel checks showed that the number of iPhones and iPods being built is slowing. Mac units are increasing, but not enough to offset a significant drop-off in the growth of the other two devices.

In terms of competition, both Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Sony Ericsson have said that they will push their smartphone sales in the US harder because each of them has modest market share. With RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Apple holding the high ground in this segment of handsets that mean that the overseas vendors will have to take aim at the iPhone and Blackberry if they hope to pick-up sales.

Apple may have one piece of news which could pop the stock. A 3G versions of the iPhone has been anticipated for some time. Sales are not being helped by having the device running on a 2.5G network. But, that is not much news to offset a series of perceived weaknesses.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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