Several reputable firms measure global PC sales. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Gartner Inc. said world-wide PC shipments grew 16% in the period, with U.S. shipments growing 4.2%." On the face of it, those numbers covering the second quarter are pretty good.

Intel’s (INTC) earnings were so strong and its forecasts so optimistic, that it would be hard to imagine that PC and server businesses would not have a booming year. But, the Gartner data seems to cut in another direction.

All of the conflicting data cannot be right at the same time.

What the PC sales data does confirm is that a slowing US economy is driving the growth rate of PC sales down in this country. If the second quarter rate was 4%, it is not hard to imagine that Q3 could be close to flat.

PC sales in Asia were not as good as expected. China announced that its GDP growth had moderated recently, so demand for technology may be leaking in Asia. There is no other region to replace it.

Intel’s numbers may not be wrong. They may simply be misleading. The company could be taking market share from rivals like AMD (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA). The pie may not be growing much, but the Intel piece probably is.

Apple’s shipments last quarter were are good as might be expected, up 38%. The market was not as good to Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ).

The most important PC shipment number to watch in Q3 is how things went in China. If there is not continuing strong growth there, even Intel will be in trouble

Douglas A. McIntyre

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