AAPL Analyst Gene Munster: Good Perspective, Poor Price Targeting

While some folks believe Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster is an Apple perma-bull (his firm makes a market in AAPL stock), a look back will tell you Gene gets it right more often than his peers.  Munster just reiterated his “Buy” rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $180.

Back in 2003, before the iPod went from merely popular to a cultural icon, Munster was one of the only analysts predicting huge iPod numbers while others saw saturation. And his perspective has been largely correct even since (maybe his bullishness gets him more detailed Apple briefings than his peers?).

When rumors start flying about Apple’s performance, I wait for Gene’s comments before forming an opinion. His latest perspective on Apple’s Q2: This week’s NPD data showing January year-over-year Mac sales down 6% and iPod sales down 14% is “a neutral or slight positive” given the state of the economy. I’d have to agree.

Munster also recently predicted an Apple TV DVR coming in 2009 (Apple TV unit sales have tripled over the last year) and doesn’t expect a new iPhone model until mid-year.

Where I think Munster has been getting it wrong lately is price targets. In a normal market, even a normal bear market, AAPL would easily reach $180 (and in normal markets, Piper Jaffray’s AAPL price targets were usually met). But this is a broken market. So unless you expect that to change in 2009, $180 seems unattainable (though it’s a retreat from Munster’s previous $235 target).

Most analysts know it’s easy to capture headlines with conjecture on Apple, but I’d listen to what Munster has to say, even if you disagree with his conclusions.

Frank Cioffi is editor of Apple Investor News. (full disclosure: Cioffi owns AAPL shares)