PC Sales Will Grow This Year, But How Many Will Be Given Away?

It has been expected for some time that global PC sales would rise this year as the economy recovers and the demand for Microsoft (MSFT) Windows 7 causes people and business to replace existing machines or, in rare cases, become first-time buyers.

But, the picture for the industry may be better than it could ever have dreamed. Research firm Gartner says that total units shipped will hit 366 million, up almost 20% over 2009.

But, dollars spent on PCs will not keep track. Gartner expects total revenue received for computers will only rise 12% to $245 billion. Netbooks are expected to accounted for most of the growth, but that will only last so long. Gartner says sales of smartphones and tablet will eat into mini-PC sales. But, portable machines are the future of the industry. George Shiffler, head of research at Gartner said, “We expect mobile PCs to drive 90 percent of PC growth over the next three years.”

What the study does not say is which companies will pick up market share next year and which will lose it. If the trends of the last year continue, Dell (DELL) will lose ground. Apple (AAPL), HP (HPQ), and several Chinese companies including Acer are also likely to do well.

As unit sales rise faster than revenue does, some firms will need to offer sharp discounts, especially to maintain market share. If history is any guide, Dell will be at the top of that list.

Douglas A. McIntrye