Consumer Electronics

Earnings Previews For Big Tech Giants (AAPL, JNPR, STX, VMW, YHOO, EMC, BIDU, EBAY, NFLX, QCOM, WDC, AMZN, MSFT, SNDK)

Earnings season is in full swing and many traders’ favorite technology stocks are reporting this week.  We have compiled previews and added in color for traders on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR), Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX), VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM), Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK).  All estimates are from Thomson Reuters.  As with most big tech earnings, it is much more than just the earnings reports to watch.  Some of the expectations are muted while others have a very high bar because of valuations,

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is on deck this afternoon and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $3.11 EPS (vs. $2.01 EPS a year ago) and $14.75 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $3.82 EPS and $17.03 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $247.00 and the 52-week range is $149.75 to $279.01.  The closest-strike straddle would cost almost $24.00, so volatility buyers would need to see close to a 10% move up or down to be profitable on the trade.  Options trades appear braced for a move of $12.00 to $13.00 in either direction.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) is on deck Tuesday after the close and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.29 EPS (vs. $0.19 a year ago) and $953.59 million in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.31 EPS and $993.3 million in revenues.  Shares are at $26.31 and the 52-week range is $22.25 to $32.16.  Traders here care about Juniper because they try to gleam into what it means for Cisco’s growth.  It is a “tail wagging the dog” comparison, but that is the way life goes in trading.

Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) is due today after the close.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.77 EPS (vs. only $0.05 EPS a year ago) and $2.85 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.83 EPS and $3.06 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $14.16 and the 52-week range is $10.72 to $21.58.  Growth questions remain and the 1 Terabyte for about $100 is an issue here just like at rival Western Digital.  With forward P/E ratios of 5 to 6, the valuation assumes much of that risk already.

VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) is due this afternoon as well.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.32 EPS and $656.4 million in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.32 EPS and $671.9 million in revenues.  Shares are at $70.00 and the 52-week range is $30.00 to $74.86.  As usual, it seems that a meet earnings and guiding in-line won’t do the trick of keeping everyone happy.  The virtualization leader has a $28.6 billion market cap but a tiny free float compared to its value.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is on deck today after the close as well.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.14 EPS (vs. $0.10 a year ago) and $1.16 billion in (ex-TAC) revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.16 EPS and $1.16 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $15.00 and the 52-week range is $13.75 to $19.12.  Carol Bartz continues to talk this up as an earnings story and an asset management story in the long turnaround here.  Despite the Microsoft search pact, the biggest criticism facing Yahoo! remains that the company is just not growing.  The slide-shows have also been attributed to some of the recapturing of search and pageviews data.

Wednesday morning comes EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) with Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.27 EPS (vs. $0.18 a year ago) and $3.98 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.30 EPS and $4.14 billion in revenues.  Shares are back up close to $20.00 and the 52-week range is $13.73 to $20.65.  Many still talk about getting to own EMC for just a few dollars per share when you back out the cash and back out the VMware stake.  The stock has come back in favor and is one of the few issues in technology that held up from April to June and is also very close to 52-week highs. Options traders are only expecting a move of up to $0.75 or $0.80 in either direction, and the trading activity of late could indicate that options are not factoring enough of a move on news.

Wednesday afternoon will come China’s Google equivalent via Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU).  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.31 EPS (vs. $0.16 adjusted a year ago) and $276.73 million in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.37 EPS and $321.55 million in revenues.  Shares are at $72.20 and the 52-week range is $31.65 to $82.29 after adjusting for its recent stock split.  Baidu can see wild post-earnings moves and it looks as though options traders are braced for a move of about $5.00 in either direction.  An at-the-money straddle would cost almost $10.00 today.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is due with earnings Wednesday afternoon and the online auction monopoly has Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.38 EPS (vs. $0.37 a year ago) and $2.17 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.39 EPS and $2.21 billion in revenues.  eBay often gives longer-term guidance, and Thomson Reuters has estimates for 2010 of $1.63 EPS and $8.99 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $20.38 and the 52-week range is $18.38 to $28.37.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is out Wednesday afternoon and the move up here has many traders and investors braced for a big move up or a big move down depending upon the news.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.71 EPS and $524.44 million in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.68 EPS and $551.7 million in revenues.  Shares are at $118.00 and the 52-week range is $39.27 to $127.96.  The valuations here are not as high as some think based upon performance and growth, but the exponential gains have been hard to miss.  It needs to be noted that a stock split is overdue considering that its shares were lower at the last split back on January 21, 2004.  Speculative options in the stock indicate that a move of up to about $10.00 in either direction could be expected.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) is out Wednesday afternoon.  This has been on a mixed picture after having lowered guidance and then raising certain targets.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.54 EPS (same as a year ago) and $2.63 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.57 EPS and $2.77 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $36.16 and the 52-week range is $31.63 to $49.80.  With all the smartphone sales, it has puzzled more than just a few investors over how it has not scored.  Some of that is on price pressures as smartphone makers and designers want the best processor for a certain price bogey rather than just the best processor.  Investors are likely to key in on average sales prices per unit.

Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is Wednesday afternoon and the storage giant has Thomson Reuters estimates of $1.36 EPS and $2.45 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $1.51 EPS and $2.62 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $31.00 and the 52-week range is $28.48 to $47.44.  Western Digital is an Apple beneficiary, but there is an ongoing issue over just how much storage the consumer will keep buying.  1 Terabyte is now available for roughly $100.00… That notion is also offset by dirt cheap valuations with ford implied P/E ratios of between 5 and 6.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is after the closing bell on Thursday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.55 EPS (vs. $0.32 a year ago) and $6.55 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.62 EPS and $7.16 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $118.00 and the 52-week range is $77.51 to $151.09.  Amazon has been in the midst of a technical no man’s land on the chart and options traders seem to be braced for a move of about $5.00 in either direction.  While Kindle sales have been hot after the recent price cut, everyone wants to know how the company is going to fend off Apple’s iTunes in the future for e-book sales, movies, and more. Apple already owns music download sales.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is out Thursday afternoon and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.47 EPS (vs. $0.36 a year ago) and $15.27 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.54 EPS and $15.65 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $25.00 and the 52-week range is $22.73 to $31.58.  The biggest view will be on the ongoing Windows 7 sales, but the question still looms over whether Microsoft will opt for one more large dividend while tax rates are so low in 2010 or if it will conduct a large buyback.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is due on Thursday after the close.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.90 EPS (vs. $0.36 a year ago) and $1.16 billion in revenue.  Next quarter estimates are $0.95 EPS and $1,25 billion in revenues.  Shares are at $40.75 and the 52-week range is $16.21 to $50.55.  SanDisk has a built in expectation for a “guide-higher” again as flash memory is where all the action is.  Shares are up over 100% in the last year and this is up over 300% from the absolute lows in 2009.  Options traders are braced for a move of up to $3.25, but that move would be small compared to past reactions.

After this week, we will have two more weeks of the earnings floodgates open.

JON C. OGG

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