The mini-PC helped pull the industry though the global recession. Its sales outstripped those of larger, more expensive PCs. Research groups like Gartner proclaimed that the trend might go on for years as consumers and businesses migrated to machines that allowed people to surf the internet and use e-mail, all for under $300.

But as worldwide PC growth moved up to 20% in the second quarter, mini-PC growth slowed. The market for the products may have become saturated, which runs counter to earlier forecasts.

The Wall Street Journal reports that sales of Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPads to businesses have been strong. The paper writes “Businesses are behaving differently with the iPad, in large part because the new device is starting out as more of a known quantity from a technical standpoint. The iPad runs the same operating software as the iPhone, which has been enhanced with a number of business-friendly features.” The trend, if confirmed, would undermine some of the improvement in sales at corporations including Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL)

iPad sales to enterprises may badly damage mini-PC sales, or iPad sales could follow mini numbers into the dump. It is easy to say that a popular product will remain popular, but that has been the assumption about minis for the last two years. Asian companies like Asus rode the mini revolution to significant PC market share. Those gains may now be lost.

With most popular technology, forecasters look at a linear trend that stretches into the future. The manufacturers deduced that mini-computers would sell at recent rates for years to come. They were wrong.

There is a temptation to claim that the iPad will begin to replace mini-PCs as a favorite of IT departments. There is just as much chance that business users will find that the product is underpowered and lacks a sufficient number of enterprise programs. The iPad may only be a consumer device that businesses experimented with and then quickly cast aside.

–Douglas McIntyre

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