Apple to Sell 28 Million iPads in 2011?

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL may be on target to sell 28 million iPads next year, which would almost certainly help lift its share price and would wreak havoc on the netbook fortresses like Asus and Acer. It would also spoil the launch of competition by Samsung and possibly Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ)

Steve Jobs took a long shot when the iPad was launched. There was not reason to believe that there way any large market between smartphones on the one hand and small laptops on the other. The Apple brand almost certainly helped carry sales of the iPad. As people began to use it touchscreen and apps devices, the product’s adoption curve steepened. Apple’s App Store has helped bring in buyers from the business and enterprise sectors.

Maynard Um of UBS Investment Research, who is already hopelessly optimistic about Apple shares, made the prediction of 28 million iPad sales for 2011. He also raised his target price to $350 from $340. “Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets,” Um wrote. “We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment,” he said, according to AppleInsider.

Um does not appear to have any real evidence for his statement. He may be no more than a wishful thinker. Apple’s shares would have to rise 49% to reach his target. That would put its market cap well above Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE XOM). Not likely.

-Douglas A. McIntyre