When Tech Analyst Downgrades Are Way Late (DELL, CSCO, INTC, AAPL)

Each morning we usually feature a handful of analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations that we think will have an impact on shares.  Many of these are time-sensitive calls due to developments in the business cycle or due to changes that are just taking shape.  But there are two calls today in technology that frankly are so late that they aren’t of any value at all.  These two tech titan cuts came against Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO).  There was an equally-late call, followed by a gutsy call, in Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) earlier this week.  Here is the big question and it is a fair question to ponder: How does all of this affect Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) down the road?

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) was cut to Underweight from Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley. The new price target is $11.00 per shares.  Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) was downgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital, which previously had it as a “Top Pick” and the price target was taken down to $26.00 from $28.00.

Another example of a fresh downgrade that was too late to have any value in tech this week was a UBS downgrade where the company cut Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) to Neutral from Buy and the target went to $19.50 from $28.00.  The call that actually had some guts to it this week was out of favor but the analyst is pursuing the right “get in low, sell high” strategy: Standpoint Research initiated coverage on Intel with a “Buy” rating and a $22.00 price target.

Here is the problem in all of these tech downgrades:

• Dell is at $12.10 after a 2.2% drop this Friday, yet the 52-week trading range is $11.34 to $17.52.
• Cisco is at $20.40 after a 1% drop this Friday, yet the 52-week trading range is $19.82 to $27.74.
• Intel is trading down 0.1% at $17.98, yet its 52-week trading range is $17.60 to $24.37.

The stock market, including technology stocks, has been range-bound for so long that you’d think these guys could get their timing better.  The sad thing is that analysts generally upgrade stocks after good news after share prices have risen, and they cut them when fears of coming bad news get confirmed…. after the stocks have fallen close to 52-week lows.

The efficient market theory you learned about in college, that theory that the stock market always incorporates and reflects all relevant information, has been a joke for quite some time.  It happens over and over again, and perhaps in The New Normal it will keep happening over and over again.  When tech giants talk about business firing on all cylinders and talk about record margins and after the stocks have seen significant run-ups, that is when analysts should be downgrading these stocks.

BUt back to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).  This company is America’s darling.  Despite the new heavier-handed tactics of the company, despite problems with its iPhone4, despite more rapid product updates to make its customers have to buy upgraded products in record time, despite issues over the Steve Jobs’ health disclosures, despite contract manufacturing work conditions, despite no dividend or use of the billions of cash, and despite that it has almost no enterprise business… Everyone still loves Apple.  What happens they day that analysts finally decide enough is enough?  There is a high analyst price target of $400 now and the average price target is still north of $330.00 versus a $263.00 handle today and its 52-week trading range is $170.25 to $279.01.  Unlike almost all other tech giants, that $279.01 is an all-time high for Apple.

Apple is a great company, without argument.  But one day there will be an issue that knocks the stock.  Maybe it will be continued margin pressure.  Maybe it will be that a cash-strapped and credit-cutting public just decides it can hold off a year to buy their newest and greatest premium products.  Maybe it will just be that the law of large numbers kick in as it is ranked #2 in our Real-Time 500 with a $240 billion market cap.

Whatever the catalyst is that comes one day, history dictates that nothing lasts forever.  What investors need to be mindful of in Apple is if all those bullish analysts keep investors in until after a big drop is seen or if they actually get it right and get investors out close to the top.  The trick is that nobody wants to be the first to get off the Apple ship, and it is hard to blame anyone for it now.

JON C. OGG