Top Apple Analyst Trims Shipment Expectations Ahead of Earnings (AAPL)

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is ‘all systems go’ again if its share price of late is any real indicator.  All of the chart weakness is behind the company and with shares now having hit $361.00 right after the open, and the all-time high of $364.90 from mid-February is once again within striking distance.  So what happens when a bullish analyst who has one of the highest price target objectives remains positive in ratings but lowers key product shipment estimates for Steve Jobs and friends just days ahead of next week’s earnings report?

Gabelli’s Hendi Susanto has a report this morning that maintains a “Buy” rating and has a private market value of $535.00 for Apple.  The problem is fresh data that it has compiled on top of slower industry growth in June from both IDC and Gartner.  The firm is lowering shipment estimates for Mac, iPad, and iPod. yet the report remains bullish on iPhone shipments.  Here are some of the figures for this quarterly report due next week:

• lowering revenues to $24.5 billion from $26.2 billion
• lowering earnings per share estimate to $5.97 from $6.42
• lowering Mac unit shipments to 3.9M from 4.6M
• lowering iPad unit shipments to 6.8M from 7.7M
• lowering iPod unit shipments to 9.1M from 9.3M

Average selling prices are being tempered in Macs, raised marginally in iPods, maintained in iPads, and moved up marginally in iPhones.  The bright spot is expected to come from iPhones if Gabelli’s team is correct.

This report is not all cautious even if the tone is that way. The $535 target compares to a consensus analyst target of $448.50 from Thomson Reuters.  The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for the quarterly report are also $5.73 EPS and $24.75 billion in revenues.

With analysts and investors trying to dissect Apple on its shipments and margins per unit, some of these figures include enough changes that they had to be pointed out.

JON C. OGG