Analysts Disagree on Apple Risks (AAPL)

Monday’s news that J.P. Morgan was lowering some orders from Asia in channel checks on the iPad for the quarter was met with some clarification inside J.P. Morgan itself and other research outfits have opined on this notion as well.

Stern Agee has reiterated it as “Buy” with a $500 target based upon the following:

• Checks indicate some merit but they don’t see risk to estimates;
• Better yields and inventory management; build plans are usually in overdrive;
• $500 target based upon conservative 12x multiple on 2012 estimate of $35.60 EPS plus net cash.

FBR noted on Monday after the J.P. Morgan call… Contacts have also seen interim cuts in iPhone and iPad production as Apple might be more cautious about global demand. On the iPhone cuts the miss for Q3 was likely due to the new iPhone5 launch ahead and the Q4 production estimates have been raised for iPhones.  The new 8MP camera may be responsible for delaying the launch due to supplies.

Goldman Sachs on Tuesday confirmed some production cuts as well in the supply chain but noted that this is not due to a demand issue.  Goldman Sachs reiterated that Apple  is on the Conviction Buy List and still has a $520 price target.

Apple has underperformed the broader market but shares are at least back up 0.7% to $406.25 on the clarification from J.P. Morgan and these other firms.  The 52-week high (and the all-time high) is $422.86.

The consensus price target objective is $492.20 from Thomson Reuters.

JON C. OGG