Tim Cook has had a hard time since he took over from Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) founder Steve Jobs as the firm’s chief executive officer. But he is not going anywhere for several reasons. Cook could run Apple for another decade or more. Among other things, the company’s board has no alternatives.
Cook really cannot be blamed for Apple’s current problems, at least if part of the Steve Jobs legend is true. According to that legend, the products Apple has released recently, and will over the next year or so, were designed by Jobs. Its current generation of engineers has not made its stamp on Apple’s future.
The primary case against Cook is that he is neither charismatic nor inventive. But the charisma Jobs had did not sell products — the products did. A product introduction only serves to show the world what is coming. The consumer eventually makes his own judgment.
Apple’s products have been flanked to some extent, particularly by new smartphones from Samsung. The Korean company’s Galaxy SIII and probably its newer S4 are considered worthy competition for the iPhone. That advantage could end when a new version of Apple’s smartphone comes out.
Apple also faces competition for its iPad product. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-based tablets have taken part of its market share. Again, a new iPad may end that erosion.
However, the market position of the iPad and iPhone are not Apple’s entire future. And its future is what should keep Cook his position. Apple’s reputation for innovation has been hurt for now. It will only take one hit product to change that for awhile. An iWatch could be the catalyst, or an advanced version of Apple TV. Apple almost certainly has enough brand equity in the market so that consumers will flock to a revolutionary product, if it breaks the mold of older ones in the same sector. It would be unwise to gamble that Apple has run out of ideas and strong execution.
Many of Apple’s most critical products still work and work well. The App Store may have competition from stores that sell Android-based applications. But the number of apps a store has available is not a sign of profitability. Recent research shows that in 2012 the Apple App store brought in three and a half times more revenue than Android stores did. Consumers clearly think more of Apple’s software products — and they said so with their wallets. Also, iTunes continues to be the dominant distribution channel for music in the world. That is a position it has held for years, and nothing shows that has changed much.
Set aside Apple’s product development and consider the situation in the Apple board room. Its directors have to consider who might replace Cook. Who might match the mythical position Jobs held in the industry? Who could take the reigns of Apple and keep its culture intact and its most important employees in place? Such a person does not exist. Apple’s board will not take the risk that Cook can be replaced even by a highly regarded executive, and to some extent that is because there is none, and to some extent because a change could splinter Apple’s hierarchy.
Cook’s jobs as CEO is safe for now and will be for some time. Apple’s ability to change markets is not gone, and its new products almost certainly will demonstrate that. Also, Cook is irreplaceable. There is no other Steve Jobs in the world, and Apple’s board knows that.
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