Dell Earnings Likely Slammed by Sour Computer Market

Thomson Reuters has a consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35 on sales of $13.52 billion. Both numbers are well below results from the same period a year ago.

The date change for the company’s results is generating more interest than the actual numbers. Few observers expect Dell to meet the EPS target due to price cuts the company made to overcome the slow sales in the PC business during the first quarter.

The other issue, of course, is the buyout offer from founder and CEO Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners worth $13.65 a share ($24.4 billion) that has been challenged by activist investor Carl Icahn and Dell shareholder Southeastern Asset Management. The move to an earlier date may mean that Dell’s board has decided to accept one or the other proposal. If it does announce a decision, that will have far more impact on the stock’s price movement than the reported numbers.

If the board punts on the decision, the shares may not react much at all to the report unless the numbers are so bad that investors fear that the Icahn/Southeastern buyout offer will be withdrawn. Dell and Silver Lake would benefit from some crappy numbers — it makes their offer look less undervalued than Icahn/Southeastern claim.

Should the numbers be awful, Dell and Silver Lake, who believed the company was worth $13.65 a share yesterday, can assure shareholders that the company will be worth $13.65 a share tomorrow, just like they said all along.

Dell’s shares are trading at $13.42 in the mid-afternoon today, down 0.2% in a 52-week range of $8.69 to $15.31.