Analyst Raises iPhone Unit Sales Projections for Two Quarters

Consumer Electronics

Published: June 5, 2013 9:45 am

Canaccord Genuity is reiterating its Buy rating on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). The firm ‘s T. Michael Walkley has updated expectations for May iPhone sales and compared these to Samsung and HTC. Today’s new research report signals that May global iPhone 5 handset sales remained a top-selling smartphone at essentially all global carriers. It does warn that it likely has lost sell-through market share after the launch of the Samsung Galaxy S4 and to a lesser extent the HTC One.

Walkley said:

Our surveys also indicated price reductions late in the March quarter to iPhone 4/4S models continued to drive strong overall iPhone unit sales in pre-paid and international carriers as well as global distributor channels. Given the stronger iPhone 4/4S mix at lower ASPs, we are adjusting our June quarter iPhone estimates.

The good news is that on a longer-term basis the expectation is that Apple has a strong product pipeline, including a refreshed iPhone 5S in the September quarter. This is expected to reaccelerate year-over-year earnings growth. Today’s research call targets iPhone 4/4S sales assumptions for the June and September quarters. The June quarter is put at 27 million units, versus 25 million units, and the September quarter is raised to 30 million units from 29 million units.

Canaccord Genuity is also considering HTC and Samsung smartphone sales. The firm now believes that Samsung surpassed Apple for the number one U.S. smartphone market share for the first time since the iPhone 5 launch during May. The firm does caution that its global surveys indicated strong sales of iPhone 4 and 4S models in international markets, driven by price cuts made late in the March quarter. On HTC, the firm said that its surveys indicate solid HTC One sales and strong reviews, versus the Samsung Galaxy S4.

On top of the Buy recommendation for Apple stock, the firm’s price target is $560, compared with a recent $449.31 close. That implies upside of almost 25%, and the consensus price target is $540.86, according to Thomson Reuters. Keep in mind that the fresh ruling against Apple in favor of Samsung will still take a while play out after appeals and negotiations.

Apple is down 0.6% at $446.60 right at the market open this Wednesday.

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