Apple had to delay the release of the latest iPhones in China due to a regulatory issue, so the devices did not go on sale until mid-October. But since then sales have been very strong, particularly for the 6 Plus. Even given the delay, one analyst suggested to the Financial Times that Apple sold as many as 2 million more phones in China during the quarter than it sold in the United States.
Analysts at UBS estimated that China accounted for 36% of iPhone shipments in the quarter compared with the United States, which accounted for 24% of shipments. If that turns out to be true, then Apple CEO Tim Cook’s prediction that China would overtake the U.S. in iPhone sales will have come true sooner than he probably expected.
So, how many iPhones did Apple sell? The headline number appears to be around 70 million units. At UBS, analyst Steve Milunovich expects sales of 67 million units at an average selling price of $685. According to Milunovich, a consensus Street estimate calls for 65.5 million units at $680.
Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha told Forbes that he expects iPhone volumes of 71 million units in the first quarter, while Brian Blair at Rosenblatt Securities has modeled sales of 72 million units.
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The even better news for Apple is that the decline rate from the first quarter could well be lower than the historical average sales decline of 15% to 20%. Blair thinks the decline could be just 11% and that Apple will sell some 60 million units in the company’s second quarter and a total of 220 million units in the 2015 calendar year.
Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri’s estimate calls for 68 million units in the first quarter and 52 million in the second.
Apple’s strong brand in China and its availability with all three of the country’s largest wireless carriers is a big part of the reason for the optimism. Another part of the reason is Samsung’s continuing difficulty in maintaining its market share lead. A report at Caixin Online noted that Samsung’s market share in October fell from its January 2014 level of 20% to 13.7%. Apple claimed 9.4% of the market in October, trailing second place Lenovo, which had 10.7%.
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