Wall Street’s forecasts for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone sales in the quarter just ending are between 47 million and 57 million, which is an extremely large spread, even for Wall Street analysts, who notoriously hedge their bets. If Apple’s sales drop below 50 million, its shares will sell off, and an already big slip over the past year will get bigger.

The effects of the new iPhone SE may not help the quarter much because of its launch date. That means the aging iPhone 6 family will need to carry the load. The level of demand before the iPhone SE becomes available and the iPhone 7, probably later this year, could be tepid. One theory is that consumers who really want an iPhone 6 already have one.

Apple sold 75 million iPhones in the fourth calendar quarter. That was the “holiday quarter” and the iPhone 6 family was relatively new. Only in the consumer tech industry can a product age rapidly in a matter of weeks.

Another challenge Apple had for some of the current quarter was the release of the Samsung Galaxy S7 family. Samsung is desperate to eat into iPhone sales. Its failure to do so in the past year has cost its earning and investors heavily. The Galaxy S7 has had its share of good reviews, and its “newness” should help its sales.

Can Apple sell 50 million iPhones in the quarter just ending? Its share price is off 15% in the past year. Short the 50 million iPhones, that number will get much worse.

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