Are Analysts Becoming Too Negative on Fitbit After Earnings?

[cnxvideo id=”508130″ placement=”ros”]Fitbit Inc. (NYSE: FIT) did not look good on Monday after the company reported preliminary results for its fourth quarter. This was a stock that analysts loved at higher prices, but it seems that Fitbit has fallen from grace as it pushes new all-time lows. Initially it was the preliminary results that pushed shares down, but now the fallout is coming from analysts dropping their price targets.

It is extremely hard to get excited about this story and the “fitness ecosystem” it wants to sell investors on. Still, it’s hard to imagine if a contrarian’s dream is not at work here with its valuation now so low.

Holiday sales were the catalyst for these weak preliminary results, with weaker than expected comparable sales and a huge miss on the bottom line. It didn’t help the case much that Fitbit also announced a restructuring of its business and some layoffs.

As for the preliminary results, Fitbit expects to report 6.5 million devices sold and revenue for the fourth quarter to be in the range of $572 million to $580 million. The previous guidance range was $725 million to $750 million.

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The fourth-quarter diluted net loss is expected to be in the range of $0.51 to $0.56. The previously announced guidance range was earnings per share (EPS) between $0.14 and $0.18.

The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters called for $0.17 in EPS and $738.16 million in revenue.

The company also will conduct a reorganization of its business, namely reducing its workforce. Fitbit will be laying off 110 employees, which is about 6% of the firm’s total global workforce.

Wedbush has a Neutral rating for the stock and cut its price target to $6.50 from $8.50. The firm further detailed in its report:

Fitbit disclosed that it is developing upgraded versions of existing products and additional products for new categories without providing any details on release timing. Upgrades for products that are now lagging expectations may not be enough to jump start sales, and the new products have the potential to underwhelm once again based upon the receptions for Charge 2 and Flex 2. Although it will expand into smartwatches following asset acquisitions from Coin, Pebble, and Vector Watch, the category has been in decline in recent quarters according to IDC. As Fitbit did not announce a new product on Monday or at CES, it is difficult to predict when a potential positive catalyst could occur. With Fitbit expecting stabilization in financial performance in the second half of 2017, investors could be facing a significant waiting period for such an announcement.

A few other analysts weighed in on Fitbit as well:

• Barclays has an Equal Weight rating and lowered its price target to $6 from $10.
• Citigroup downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral.
• Mizuho has a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $6.50 from $9.
• Raymond James lowered its price target to $9 from $10.

Shares of Fitbit were last seen down over 2% at $5.91, with a consensus analyst price target of $8.76 and a 52-week trading range of $5.90 to $18.85.

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