Adjusting Retail Sales Expectations Mostly Higher (M, KSS, JWN, TJX, ROST, GPS, BKE, WTSLA)

The research firm Retail Metrics is out signaling better than expected retail sales should be the norm this week when companies report their March same-store sales figures.  The report noted that February sales and traffic were strong with comparable sales up 4.2% and it expects that trend looks to have continued in March.

Many factors are cited: an earlier Easter holiday by 16 days this year, very favorable weather conditions, improving employment, well received colorful spring merchandise assortments, rising consumer confidence, and pent up demand.

While estimates have been moving higher, Retail Metrics expects that retailers should surprise on the upside for a fourth consecutive month.  It does warn, however, that the gains in March may come at the expense of April and it also noted that retailers face a very steep 8.7% comparison with April 2011 and that makes for an uphill battle.

The report noted that (after falling over the weekend) department store forecasts turned up and now stand at 4.2%.  Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) all experienced 20 basis point upward moves to their consensus estimates.  Other gains in expectations were as follows: The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) with a 130 basis point rise; Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) with a full 100 basis point rise; Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) with a 60 basis point rise; and eve Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) showing a 40 basis point rise.

Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) is expected to be one of the surprise reduced forecasts by 70 basis points, but its stock is with 2% of a 52-week high.  Another large reduction was an 80 basis point tempering of expectations from the Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA) and its stock has been very weak in the last year.

We should be getting most of the same-store sales reports on Wednesday and Thursday of this week ahead of the Easter weekend.

JON C. OGG