Companies and Brands

Why McDonald's Earnings Tell a Story of Never-Ending Woe

McDonald's 1990's logo
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McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) reported third-quarter 2014 results before markets opened Tuesday. The fast-food restaurant chain posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09 on revenues of $6.99 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $1.52 on revenues of $7.32 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $1.37 and $7.18 billion in revenues.

Excluding certain items, such as $0.15 per share for the estimated impact of meat supply problem in Asia and a $0.26 per share charge for an increase in tax reserves, EPS for the quarter came in at $1.51, down a penny from last year’s unadjusted total.

U.S. same-store sales fell 3.3% year-over-year in the third quarter. McDonald’s blamed less traffic as a result of tougher competition. Operating income fell 10% as the company’s marketing initiatives failed to provide the expected benefits.

European same-store sales were down 1.4% and operating income was down 2% on weakness in Russia, Ukraine and Germany. In the company’s Asia/Pacific/Middle East/Africa segment, same-store sales fell 9.9% and operating income dropped 55% (no, that is not a typo).

Globally, same-store sales in the fourth quarter fell 3.3% and consolidated operating income was down 14%, primarily as a result of the impact of the tainted meat scandal in Asia.

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In case you were wondering what CEO Don Thompson plans to do to turn the company around, here is the plan:

We began 2014 mindful of the challenges we faced in driving sales and profitability. The internal factors and external headwinds have proven more formidable than expected and will continue into the fourth quarter, with global comparable sales for October expected to be negative. These significant challenges call for equally significant changes in the way we do business.

In other words, October will be a bust and don’t look for any improvement in the fourth quarter. In the United States, Thompson said that McDonald’s will be “driving decision making from headquarters back into the field, where our restaurants serve the daily needs of our customers in their local communities.” Translation: we don’t have a clue what to do, so we’ll make it our franchisees’ problem and blame them when it doesn’t turn around.

McDonald’s previously announced a program to return $18 billion to $20 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks between now and 2016. So far in 2014, the company has returned $4.6 billion to shareholders. The company’s board and management are hoping that and the recent increase in the annual dividend to $3.40 (3.7% dividend yield) forgive a lot of sins.

The consensus estimates for the fourth quarter call for EPS of $1.34 on revenues of $6.97 billion. The current full-year 2014 forecast calls for EPS of $5.35 on revenues of $28.52 billion. Just as we noted after McDonald’s reported results last quarter, none of those numbers will last another week.

McDonald’s shares were down about 2.2% in premarket trading, at $89.60 in a 52-week range of $89.34 to $103.78. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $98.50 before the report.

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