Companies and Brands

What to Expect From Coke and Pepsi Earnings

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courtesy of PepsiCo
When Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) report fourth-quarter and full-year earnings later this week, we are very likely to hear two not-very different version of the same story: slowing growth, unfavorable currency exchange rates and political turmoil are creating serious headwinds.

Coke is expected to post quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42 on revenues $10.76 billion when the company reports results before markets open on Tuesday. In the year-ago quarter, Coca-Cola had EPS of $0.46 on revenues of $11.04 billion. For the full year, Coke is expected to post EPS of $2.03 on revenues of $45.91 billion, both short of 2013 totals of $2.08 per share and $46.85 billion.

Pepsi reports earnings on Wednesday, and analysts are looking for EPS of $1.08 on revenues of $19.66 billion, compared with EPS of $1.05 and revenues of $20.12 billion in the year-ago quarter. For the full year, Pepsi is expected to report EPS of $4.59 on revenues of $66.48 billion, compared with year-ago results of $4.37 in earnings per share and revenues of $66.42 billion.

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At the end of the third quarter, Coke forecast exchange rate drag of 6% on full-year operating earnings and Pepsi said its full-year EPS results would take a hit of about 3% due to the strong dollar. Coke already warned that it would miss its full-year profit target, due at least in part to lower sales in Mexico where soft drinks were hit with a new tax last year. Sales are also expected to be lower in Brazil, Europe and Japan, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan.

Pepsi takes its lumps in Russia and Venezuela, as these two oil-based economies struggle. Venezuela revalued its currency last year and that took a bite out of the company’s profits. The good news is that U.S. consumers may be buying few cans and bottles of soft drinks, but they are willing to pay more for what they do buy.

Of the two companies, Coke currently looks a little better on paper. The company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 20.43 and the price-to-book value is 5.42. Pepsi’s forward P/E is 20.27 and the price-to-book value is 6.26. Based on a consensus price target of $44.61, the potential upside in Coca-Cola stock is around 7.6%, based on Friday’s closing price of $41.45. At Pepsi’s consensus price target of $103.14 and Friday closing price of $96.71, its implied gain is 6.6%.

When we looked at the bull and bear cases for the 30 Dow stocks, Coca-Cola was one of the poorer performers in 2014 with a dividend-adjusted gain of just 5.3%, compared with a return of 7.5% from the Dow 30. Coke has taken stakes in both Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) and Monster Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: MNST) in an effort to diversify. It is not a particularly risky move because Coke can buy the smaller company or companies if the partnership is a success and it can sell the stakes without too much damage.

Pepsi’s snack food business provided a third of the company’s $309 million year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter and more than half the company’s profit growth in the same period. Pepsi has to figure out a way to overcome the weakness in Russia and Venezuela, and if that were easy it would be done by now.

ALSO READ: Why Keurig Green Mountain Earnings Are Not Enough

Coke’s stock traded lower in the early afternoon on Monday, down about 0.4% to $41.26, in a 52-week range of $36.89 to $45.00. Coca-Cola’s market cap is around $181 billion.

Pepsi shares traded down 0.5%, at around $96.20, in a 52-week range of $77.01 to $100.70. The company’s market cap is about $144 billion.

 

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