Companies and Brands
Philip Morris Scores Key Upgrade With Dividend Hike Expectations
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Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM), known for being a top defensive stock, might be looking to entice more investors with an even stronger dividend, or at least one key analyst thinks so. This cigarette giant has been creating solid cash flow through its international brands and robust pricing power, which in turn could result in an even stronger position.
Wells Fargo’s Bonnie Herzog reiterated an Outperform rating with a valuation range of $94 to $96. This rating was driven by the company’s pricing power, strong global brands and the incremental reduction of its risk product platform, which should provide long-term upside in the stock.
The investment bank expects the Philip Morris board of directors to approve a quarterly dividend increase on September 9 of at least 5% to $1.05 per share, implying a very attractive yield of 5.0% and a payout ratio of almost 95%. Although its payout will be quite a bit above historical averages, and PM’s target payout ratio of around 65%, its dividend remains a priority (over currently suspended share buybacks) and management remains committed to returning close to 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders.
Also based on Wells Fargo’s free cash flow analysis, the firm believes there is sufficient “cushion” for a 5% dividend increase this year and in 2016. Therefore, it encourages investors to build bigger positions in Philip Morris since it believes a dividend increase will be a positive catalyst for the stock.
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The key themes that Wells Fargo mentioned in its report were:
Ultimately, Wells Fargo detailed its investment thesis as:
We expect PM to outperform over the long term given its (1) superior and reinvigorated Marlboro brand franchise, (2) its industry-leading, diverse brand portfolio, and (3) its impressive Return on Invested Capital and improving economic profit. Phillip Morris has emerged in a class of its own and we believe it is poised for further growth.
Shares of Philip Morris were down 0.2% to $84.09 Monday morning. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $87.71 and a 52-week trading range of $75.27 to $90.25.
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