What to Expect From McDonald’s Earnings

So why is it that McDonald’s shares are within 2% of 52-week highs?

Thomson Reuters has its consensus estimates pegged at $1.28 in earnings per share (EPS) and revenues just over $6.4 billion. Those would compare to results from a year ago of $1.09 EPS and sales of $6.99 billion.

For the quarter ahead, those consensus estimates are $1.17 EPS and $6.12 billion in revenues, which would compare to $1.13 EPS and $6.57 billion from the prior year.

One key issue is always same-store sales. We have seen estimates for global same-store sales of almost 2.0% for the quarter. The bulk of that growth was said to be from China, Russia, Korea and Europe. U.S. same-store sales are expected to be barely in the red, perhaps -0.1% to -0.2%.

Where McDonald’s shares have so much pressure is on wages, particularly after the Wal-Mart debacle last week. Sales are expected to be down almost 9% total to almost $25 billion in 2015, but the consensus estimate is for revenues to fall another 3.5% in 2016 to $24.1 billion. Again, shares are within 2% of a 52-week high.

McDonald’s has been the key focal flash point for the 415.00 per hour minimum wage. Imagine what that would do to its operating costs and earnings.

The one issue that continues is the mix of food. Millennials just haven’t wanted to eat there, in favor of healthier food choices. The extension of all-day breakfast has been viewed as a positive. Still, most consumers think of McDonald’s as a very affordable way to feed a family or a way to get a cheap meal. Organic food just is not a huge target here, and probably never really will be. Dare we ask about health food in the future, organic or not?

One last issue that we expect to hear more of is how McDonald’s will treat its vast land holdings. That has been in the news of late, but we may get more thoughts or details on that.

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McDonald’s shares were soft the afternoon ahead of earnings. Maybe the $103.15 share price and the 52-week high of $105.20 last week being up over $10 from the low closing prices in August means that investors want to lighten up ahead of this earnings report. McDonald’s has just not had a good history around earnings for the past couple of years.

McDonald’s has a consensus price target of $104.57 and a 52-week range of $87.50 to $105.20. It also has a market cap of $96.8 billion.