Companies and Brands
Analyst Says Time to Buy These 3 Battered Apparel Stocks
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Most of the recent analyst activity has been firm downgrading stocks or handily lowering their price targets. That is what happens as stocks sell off and old targets become more unrealistic. Still, some analysts are out defending their calls and targets.
Canaccord Genuity defended some battered apparel stocks on Monday. It was hard to ignore that these stocks are closer to 52-week lows than they are to their 52-week highs.
Many pressures have had an impact on apparel makers and the retailers selling their clothes. First and foremost, a warm winter season in much of the United States made for very weak sales of higher dollar coats and other winter wear. Another issue is that consumer spending remains spotty.
Canaccord Genuity has three top picks for turnarounds and value investors alike.
VF
Not only reiterated as Buy, VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC) also was named as a Top Pick. The price target was lowered but only by $1.00 to $82.00. The view here is that VF gave very conservative guidance and will have a sharpened use of its balance sheet. Canaccord Genuity said:
We believe this guidance takes an appropriately conservative stance but leaves room for upside, particularly if cold weather hits early in the season and VF Corp can accommodate at-once orders… Our two key takes from VF Corp’s fourth quarter are that (1) its key brands remain strong and well positioned for growth in 2016, and (2) management’s tone about the use of its balance sheet has sharpened to the benefit of shareholders.
Canaccord Genuity also sees a heightened sense of urgency in terms of acquisitions and divestitures, and that the $1 billion buyback this year will not affect its acquisition appetite. Another positive is that VF is believed to have a decent inventory position and a moderating currency pressure.
The $82.00 Canaccord Genuity price target compares to a consensus analyst target price of $70.58. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $52.21 to $77.83. VF shares were last seen trading up 4.9% at $61.41.
Steven Madden
Canaccord Genuity cited Steven Madden Ltd.’s (NASDAQ: SHOO) strong showing at Platform, so it reiterated its Buy rating and $38 price target. The firm was impressed with the breadth of new styles. One issue seen here is that retailers are continuing to exercise caution with orders, resulting in open-to-buy dollars flat to down slightly for the category. That being said, Steven Madden was seen as gaining incremental share as the consolidation of brands favors the company.
Another boost, and somewhat surprising, was that the company’s relationship with Amazon.com is seen as expanding — and likely doubling in two years, counting the incremental business that can be done through that channel. The firm said:
Today, Steven Madden’s business with Amazon is relatively small (we estimate $20M) but has the potential to be significantly larger if Steven Madden will ship it more inventory. What’s more, Steven Madden now realizes that a product can have a much longer life cycle on Amazon than traditional sell-in channels that usually carry specific styles for one season.
This life cycle extension opportunity should arguably help both sales and margins, and potentially serve as a much more profitable clearance channel of sorts.
Canaccord Genuity’s $38 price target compares to a consensus analyst target of $37.70. Shares were last seen trading up 0.5% at $34.79, in a 52-week range of $27.80 to $44.73.
Deckers Outdoor
Though Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) was reiterated as Buy with a $67 price target, Canaccord Genuity said that the pieces are coming together for a classic second half of 2016 rebound. The firm even said that Deckers is a top recovery pick.
On top of indicating that the backlog could be better than expected, Canaccord Genuity said:
Clearly, the company has accelerated its innovation pipeline to better meet changing consumer buying habits. We believe discussions with retail buyers have gone well, particularly with the expansion of the new lines, despite the challenges every winter-related brand experienced in the fourth quarter.
The dual focus of making more fashionable assortments and extending the line to a multi- season brand is strategically correct, and should bear fruit later this year. Also, Deckers is becoming smarter about segmenting across channels of distribution by price points (e.g. Pinnacle, Premium, Core, and Entry Level) yet being cognizant of maintaining a strong price/value relationship. Taking it altogether, we believe the UGG product line has evolved immensely and should result in a strong recovery of sales trends as we head into fall 2016.
Its $67 price target is an average of 12 times the firm’s fiscal year 2017 earnings estimate, eight times EV/EBITDA and DCF. The consensus analyst target price is only $55.67, and the 52-week range is $40.74 to $78.00. Deckers shares were last seen up 1.3% at $53.65.
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