Companies and Brands
EU Court Ruling Against Tobacco Is Bad News for Philip Morris
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In 2014 the European Union adopted a strict anti-smoking law that banned menthol cigarettes, ordered larger warning labels on cigarette packaging, and set limits on how much nicotine could be included in e-cigarettes. On Wednesday, the European Court of Justice upheld the law, tossing out a challenge from Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and Britain’s Imperial Brands.
The EU’s 2014 Tobacco Products Directive requires that warnings on the dangers of cigarettes must cover at least 65% of the front and back of cigarette packages is “appropriate and necessary,” according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. In May of 2015, the United Kingdom passed a law banning branding on cigarette packaging and Wednesday’s ruling substantially increases the chance that a December challenge to that law by Philip Morris, Imperial and others will also be thrown out.
There are plain-packaging laws being considered in 20 countries, although the United States is not one of them. U.S. laws protecting free speech make the implementation of such laws virtually impossible here.
If cigarette packaging is forced to become generic, what is now a differentiated market becomes a commodity market and competition in that market now reverts simply to price. This is especially bad news for Philip Morris, owner of the Marlboro brand, the best-selling cigarette brand in the world. In May of 2015, advertising consulting firm Millward Brown valued the brand at $80 billion, the tenth highest brand value in the world and higher than either Facebook or Amazon. The valuation includes both the U.S. brand, which is owned by Altria Inc. (NYSE: MO), and Philip Morris.
While $80 billion in brand value (or at least the international part of it) won’t evaporate overnight, neither will it grow as fast as it has. Packaging restrictions combined with other restrictions on advertising may inexorably lead to the commoditization of cigarettes.
Philip Morris’s stock added nearly 19% over the past 12 months and the stock’s value has nearly doubled in the past 10 years. The dividend yield was 4.16% at Tuesday’s closing price, the highest among U.S.-traded tobacco companies.
The stock closed at $98.52 on Wednesday, down less than 0.1% on the day, in a 52-week range of $76.54 to $102.00. The consensus price target on the stock is $101.85.
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