Companies and Brands

US Foods Given Upside by Analysts as Quiet Period Expires

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US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE: USFD) found itself in a strange spot ahead of its initial public offering (IPO). The distributor and marketer of food and products and services in the food industry was to be acquired, but the deal was blocked due to competitive pressures. Now it has seen its quiet period come to an end, after the May 26 IPO was for 44.4 million shares at $23.00 per share.

After closing at $23.96 on Friday, US Foods has seen a post-IPO range of $23.32 to $25.64. Now that analysts of the underwriting firms have been freed up to speak into the end of the quiet period, 24/7 Wall St. wanted to see how the views look.

It turns out that they are mixed on what sort of upside should generate the equivalent of “Buy and Outperform” versus “Neutral and Hold.” These are some of the summaries.

Merrill Lynch called it a unique and differentiated approach to support the distributor’s outlook. The report said:

We are initiating coverage of US Foods with a Buy rating and a $29 price objective. We view USFD’s unique data-driven approach as a competitive advantage for winning with higher-margin independent restaurants. We expect USFD will grow EPS at a 25% CAGR supported by highly visible productivity & cost-cutting initiatives & deleveraging.

Credit Suisse assigned an Outperform rating and $29 price target. The analyst sees it as a good story in an attractive industry at a discount valuation. Credit Suisse said:

US Foods is the second-largest distributor in the attractive $268 billion U.S. foodservice industry and is one of only two national players. The company has regrouped with a reasonable growth strategy following its failed and highly disruptive merger attempt with SYSCO Foods.

Earnings momentum has recovered and looks poised for further progress as internal sales and operating initiatives drive growth. M&A supplements this outlook, as the company sees a large opportunity to foster industry consolidation and expand its 9% market share. An attractive relative multiple, despite a successful IPO, still provides a favorable entry point.

Wells Fargo started it as Outperform and the valuation range was put at $26 to $27. The firm said:

Our valuation range of $26 to $27 is based on 10.3 times the next 12 months EV/EBITDA basis (including the impact of stock comp and LIFO), or 22.5 to 23.5 times the 2017 EPS estimate. Risks tour thesis include industry competition, M&A integration, rising labor costs, food/commodity fluctuations and leverage.

Our Outperform thesis is predicated on US Food’s 1) underlying sales inflection, 2) mix and productivity-driven margin opportunity, 3) improving fundamentals in a defensive industry, and 4) optionality to deploy free cash to de-lever or pursue M&A.

Other key analyst calls seen were listed as follows:

  • BMO Capital Markets started it as Market Perform with a $25 price target.
  • Deutsche Bank started it as Buy with a $28 price target.
  • Goldman Sachs started it as Neutral with a $28 price target.
  • JPMorgan started it as Overweight with a $27.50 price target.
  • Morgan Stanley started it as Equal Weight with a $28 price target.

To put the credit metrics in line here, Standard & Poor’s assigned a B’ rating and gave a Positive outlook on June 3. Moody’s raised its rating to B2 and said it remains on watch for a potential credit rating upgrade.

US Foods was last seen trading up three cents at $23.99 on Monday. It has a market cap of $5.13 billion.

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