Companies and Brands

Investors Bet That Harley-Davidson Can Keep the Earnings Magic

Paul Ausick

Published: October 27, 2020 10:04 am

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) reported third-quarter 2020 results before markets opened Tuesday. The American motorcycle manufacturer posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 on revenues of $1.2 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported adjusted EPS of $0.70 on revenues of $1.3 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to consensus estimates for EPS of $0.28 and $862.1 million in revenues.

Harley also provided an update on its “Rewire” initiative to narrow its focus, restructure operations and return the Harley-Davidson brand “as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world.” The Rewire program appears to be working.

The company said it is on track to save $250 million in cash this year and to save another $115 million annually from “restructuring actions taken expected starting in 2021.” Harley has boosted its cash position from $862 million at the end of the 2019 third quarter to $1.1 billion and reduced its global dealer inventory by more than 30% year over year. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $4.7 billion.

Its 2020 model motorcycles are selling at full manufacturer’s suggested retail price in the United States and U.S. prices for used bikes are “up significantly.” The company plans to retain its 36 highest potential markets, transition 17 others to “more cost-effective distributor models” and exit 39 markets that no longer “support continued investment.”

In the third quarter, U.S. retail sales volume fell 10% year over year to 31,300 motorcycles and fell 8% globally to 53,800 units. Global operating income was flat year over year at $47 million, and operating margin rose 0.5 percentage points to 4.8%.

The company did not provide guidance, but analysts estimated fourth-quarter EPS at $0.05 on revenue of $747.2 million. For the full year, analysts are looking for EPS of $0.14 and sales of $3.4 billion.

Jochen Zeitz, board chair, president and CEO, touted the “positive changes” the company has made in its Rewire program as Harley prepares to launch a five-year strategic plan it calls the Hardwire. “We have started on our journey to become a high-performance company where business structure, leadership principles and our culture are all aligned,” Zeitz commented.

Third-quarter results crushed estimates and investors pushed the stock up by more than 10% in Tuesday’s premarket session to $32.00, in a 52-week range of $14.31 to $40.86. The stock was up more than 20% to $34.96 on last look. Harley pays a dividend yield of 0.28%, and the consensus 12-month price target is $31.73.

While the quarterly numbers were unexpectedly robust, the company did mention some caveats: “Included in the company’s broad cost and cash savings measures are SG&A reductions, curtailed capital spending, suspended discretionary share repurchases and a prudent approach to dividend payments.”