Today we got our first look at Q4 2007 GDP, and this is the preliminary data that will see two revisions ahead. Q4 GDP just came in at +0.6%. Most estimates we saw were still north of 1% GDP growth with a 1.2% to 1.4% range. The number was a bit better if you back out autos at +1.6% but not enough to make anyone cheer.
Also broken out of the GDP number was PCE Price Index came in at +3.9%, and the price deflator gave this a level of +2.5%.
While this is still positive above the 0.0 mark, it is under plan and was not anywhere strong enough to dash hopes for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut today. We have been noting that the US economy is for all practical purposes already in a recession, and this +0.6% reading just makes this look like that is even more the case when you consider how many parts of the country are in more than a pinch.
Jon C. Ogg
January 30, 2008
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