Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun.The smallest Malay rabbit deplores this foolish habit.–Noel Coward.
A group of economists say the US should miss out on a recession this year. This is the opinion of the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles. According to the AP "The forecast expects the economy to post gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009."
Perhaps this is why economists are not payed a well as baseball players. In the Majors a batting average usually has to be above .250.
While everyone would desperately like to believe the Anderson Forecast, it has next to no credibility. Retail sales are running down too much now as are sales of consumer durables and cars. Fuel prices, which have gas moving toward $4 a gallon, are likely to empty consumer pockets so that there is nothing left in them but lint.
Lay-offs have only just begun. Troubled industries, especially the financial, retail, housing, airlines, and auto sectors are going to have to bleed jobs to keep from going deeply into the red. It is almost impossible to believe that the mortgage default rate will go anywhere but up.
But, none of that means a recession.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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