Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, and George Soros have made a cottage industry from commenting on the odds for and state of a recession. None of them needs money for his comments, so they must simply like the media attention.
Recent comments from Buffett and Soros reflect their concerns that a downturn will be long and deep.
Overnight, Alan Greenspan weighed in again, making comments to the FT. The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: “I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession.”
Since a recession may have begin at the first of the year, Mr. Greenspan could have been caught napping.
Greenspan did say that he expected that magnitude of the housing correction to bring prices down 25% from their peaks. He did not have much to say about inflation other than that his speaking fees are going up.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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