We just got the full comments from the August 5 FOMC meeting. The FOMC sees continued downside to growth with a damped economy lasting several quarters. Members continue to believe that the next rate direction is for higher rates, but the timing still appears uncertain (most likely meaning after the election). Officials see lower GDP in the second half of 2008 and in 2009. The staff sees inflation high in 2008 and slowing in 2009; but there is some division on what the actual bias of the Fed looks like. Here is a link to the full prepared minutes with the exact numbers and exact comments. What is ever-obvious is that the FOMC really can’t figure out if it is Jeckyl or Hyde. It wants to fight inflation and can’t lower rates, but the economic data is still getting weaker and the unofficial recession hasn’t even gone official.
Jon C. Ogg
August 26, 2008