The federal government’s monthly unemployment numbers are gospel, at least to the financial markets. But they are revised at least once, often twice, after they are issued. An early signal of what the federal numbers might be are the payroll numbers released by ADP (NASDAQ: ADP), which usually come out just a few days before the government’s monthly data.
Another set of figures from a respected source are those from Gallup, although the market does not seem to pay much attention to them, no matter how good the data-collection methodology. Gallup uses a random sample of 29,243 adults, which it canvasses once a month. The latest Gallup data runs counter to most expectations for weakening job growth. If the data are correct, the economy may add more employees than expected in June.
The research firm reported that:
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.0% in mid-June, unchanged from the end of May but significantly better than the 8.7% for the month of June 2011. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted number is 7.8%, an improvement from 8.3% at the end of May, and down slightly from the previous seasonally adjusted low of 7.9%, measured in January.
One reason that measurements of employment do not match each other more tightly is that the periods over which the information is gathered are not common. The federal data represents the first part of the month it reports. ADP measures over a different period, as does Gallup. The readings, therefore, may have little in common.
No matter what the exact measurement period, the Gallup numbers are heartening:
Although Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate was unchanged on June 15, the 30-day average dipped below the 8.0% mark, to 7.9% or 7.8%, on five days in early June. This marks the first time unemployment has dropped below 8.0% in the 30-day rolling averages since Gallup started collecting employment data in January 2010.
Maybe numbers that almost no one pays attention to will be correct, and the clouds over the job market will begin to dissipate.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Are You Still Paying With a Debit Card?
The average American spends $17,274 on debit cards a year, and it’s a HUGE mistake. First, debit cards don’t have the same fraud protections as credit cards. Once your money is gone, it’s gone. But more importantly you can actually get something back from this spending every time you swipe.
Issuers are handing out wild bonuses right now. With some you can earn up to 5% back on every purchase. That’s like getting a 5% discount on everything you buy!
Our top pick is kind of hard to imagine. Not only does it pay up to 5% back, it also includes a $200 cash back reward in the first six months, a 0% intro APR, and…. $0 annual fee. It’s quite literally free money for any one that uses a card regularly. Click here to learn more!
Flywheel Publishing has partnered with CardRatings to provide coverage of credit card products. Flywheel Publishing and CardRatings may receive a commission from card issuers.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Latest from 24/7
Our expert who first called NVIDIA in 2009 is predicting 2025 will see a historic AI breakthrough.
You can follow him investing $500,000 of his own money on our top AI stocks for free.