The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has issued its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the month of May. While the number appears to be an improvement over April, it is unfortunately still a negative number at -0.30 in May versus -0.52 in April. Bloomberg had the consensus estimate at -0.25 for May.

Note that more recent data already has been released for June, so this number may be viewed less closely than more current numbers. One issue to consider is that the four-week average slid to -0.43 and that is the lowest average going back to the fall of 2012.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators based on national economic activity and is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Above zero is growth, under zero is contraction. The four major categories are broken up as follows: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories.

The Chicago Fed showed that 33 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions in May, but 52 indicators made negative contributions. Some 49 of the 85 indicators improved from April to May, and 35 indicators contracted. Of the indicators that improved during May, 25 of these still made negative contributions.

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