The report on durable goods can be the most volatile of all major economic reports. It is reported each month, covering the big-ticket items that consumers and businesses buy to work for years. Trends in autos, airplanes and military orders can all fluctuate wildly each month. The Commerce Department reported that September’s durable goods orders were up by 3.7% on the headline and were down by 0.1% on the ex-transportation report.
Bloomberg had the consensus estimate at 2.5% on the headline report, with a broad range of 0.4% growth to 7.0% growth. On an ex-transportation basis, the Bloomberg consensus was for 0.5% growth and the range was listed as -0.2% up to 1.1%.
Aircraft demand really helped this report. We would also point out that many of these orders were in just ahead of the federal government shutdown, and that throws in an added wrench.
Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft was down 1.1%, and this is the main measurement on business spending. Defense capital spending was up more than 13% ahead of the fiscal year-end.
This is another weak report by our count, one that allows the mantra of Fed bond buying to keep chugging along without fears of any sudden tapering.
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