The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) at noon Friday, offering the agency’s first look at the U.S. and global crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2014-2015 crop year.

Looking first at livestock prices, the USDA projects U.S. red meat and poultry production to rise in 2015 as pork and poultry production increase. The virus epidemic that is decimating the hog population this year is expected to be offset by increased farrowing and feeding hogs to higher weights. The increases are expected to be slow, however, and the availability of market hogs is expected to remain tight in 2015. Hog prices are forecast to be lower next year.

Beef production is forecast to decline as herds continue to decline, but “despite expectations of heavier slaughter weights, tight supplies of fed cattle for slaughter and reduced cow slaughter will result in lower beef production.” The upshot is that beef prices are forecast to be higher in 2015 than they are this year as more beef will need to be imported to meet demand.

Milk production is forecast higher in 2015, as this year’s high prices are causing farmers to expand their herds. The forecast price for all milk products is forecast to slide from a range of $22.70 to $23.00 per hundredweight this year to $19.70 to $20.70 per hundredweight in 2015.

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Chicken production is forecast to be lower next year, while turkey production is forecast to rise. Prices for both will remain high as poultry is being substituted for the more expensive beef and pork products by many consumers. Higher egg production will keep egg prices in check this year, but prices are now forecast to rise in 2015.

For crops like wheat, corn and other grains, the forecast is based on data about production so far on winter wheat and plantings of other crops. The USDA expects U.S. wheat supplies for 2014-2015 to be down 10% compared with the current crop year, as beginning inventories, production and imports are currently all forecast to be lower. The all wheat season average price for the next year is projected at $6.65 to $7.95 a bushel, compared with today’s wheat price of around $7.32, which is near the 12-month high of about $7.40.

Corn production is forecast higher while prices should be lower. The projected season average corn price for this year is $4.50 to $4.80 a bushel, falling to an expected range of $3.85 to $4.55 next year.

The USDA admits that this initial forecast is “highly tentative,” but it does offer a broad overview of where food prices are and where they are headed. With a few moderating exceptions, the direction is higher and that is not welcome news for consumers.

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