As we enter mid-August, the economic calendar still has some important reports on deck for the week ahead. 24/7 Wall St. has created a brief preview for the top economic events on deck this coming week. These are certainly not all of the events, but they are the more prominent reports we will be watching and covering this week. We have used estimates from Bloomberg and Dow Jones, but not all estimates are in and these estimates may change ahead of each report.
On Tuesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. we get to see the TREASURY BUDGET for the month of July. With all of the media hoopla about a $70 billion surplus in June, it will be interesting to see how the media covers an expected wide deficit in July. The cumulative U.S. Treasury monthly budget reports for Fiscal 2014 was for the nine months through June, and the deficit was down 28% from a year ago at $365.9 billion. The Bloomberg estimate is -$96 billion.
On Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. comes the RETAIL SALES report for July. The direction of the report should be known now that many of the same-store sales reports have been seen. Still, this includes many of the giants which no longer offer up monthly data. We are looking for a modest uptick from June to July. The Bloomberg estimate is +0.2% and the Dow Jones estimate is +0.3%.
Thursday brings the WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS report from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. The trend has now switched to clearly lower jobless claims now that the last reading was 289,000. We are at post-recession lows on the four-week average and on the continuing jobless claims as well. Estimates will be more clear on Tuesday.
Friday will bring the report on wholesale inflation as the Labor Department submits its PRODUCER PRICE INDEX on Friday at 8:30 a.m. As a reminder, the new way of tracking this is on Final Demand. Energy prices have already come down, but the public remains on inflation watch. The consensus is for a drop from the spike up seen in June. Estimates on PPI are as follows: Headline PPI – Bloomberg estimate is +0.1% and Dow Jones estimate is +0.1%; Core PPI – Bloomberg is +0.2%.
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Friday will also bring the July report on INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION and CAPACITY UTILIZATION at 9:15 a.m. We are looking for modest upticks to the June reading of +0.2% on production and 79.1% on capacity. Estimates are as follows: Industrial Production – Bloomberg is +0.3% and Dow Jones is +0.3%; and Capacity Utilization – Bloomberg is 79.2% and Dow Jones is 79.2%.
Friday will also bring the preliminary Reuters University of Michigan report on CONSUMER SENTIMENT for August. While this sampling is smaller than we prefer, it is the first semi-live consumer opinion barometer released each month. This was 81.8 in July. The Bloomberg estimate is 82.3 and the Dow Jones estimate is 82.4.
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