The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.39 in the month of July, and the reading from June was revised to +0.21 from a preliminary +0.12. On top of the prior month being revised higher, this preliminary reading compared to a Bloomberg consensus estimate of only +0.20 for July.
Some 53 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in July. The other 32 made negative contributions. Also, 48 of the 85 indicators improved from June to July, with 36 of the 85 indicators deteriorating; one was unchanged.
Monday’s Fed index is a national indicator and it was led higher by improvements in production-related indicators. It also was shown that three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions to the index in July. Also, two of the four categories increased from June.
The index’s three-month moving average rose to +0.25 in July from +0.16 in June. That actually marked the fifth consecutive growth reading that was above zero and suggests that the growth rate in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. Another good sign is that the report suggests only limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, also a three-month moving average, rose to +0.31 in July from +0.21 in June.
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