Friday morning will bring the key Employment Situation Report from the U.S. Department of Labor. Here is a 24/7 Wall St. full preview for Friday’s numbers, given that the Federal Reserve is watching closely at this time.
In addition to the estimates given, we have included key data on the jobs front already released by departments and outside groups, other than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this week. We also have provided links to each individual analysis for those who want a closer look at ADP, TrimTabs, jobless claims and the like.
Friday’s formal unemployment and payrolls report from the Labor Department does not seem to have seen any massive changes for September’s payrolls. 24/7 Wall St. has taken the estimates of both Bloomberg and Dow Jones, where applicable.
The Bloomberg consensus estimates are as follows:
- Unemployment to be 6.1% (flat)
- Nonfarm payrolls to be 215,000 (up 73,000)
- Private payrolls to be 215,000 (up 81,000)
- Average workweek at 34.5 hours (flat)
- Average hourly earnings up 0.2% (flat)
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The Dow Jones consensus estimates are as follows:
- Unemployment to be 6.1% (flat)
- Nonfarm payrolls to be 215,000 (up 73,000)
- Average hourly earnings up 0.2% (flat)
We have also covered the rest of the key economic readings seen this week. On the surface, we would believe that there is no basis for any serious changes, but recall that the August figure was so much lower than expected, so market participants should either be braced for big revisions or a skewed report.
The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest weekly jobless claims figures Thursday morning. The reading came to 287,000, which was below the Bloomberg consensus of 297,000. The weekly jobless claims for last week were revised to 295,000. Continuing claims, which lag by a week, fell 45,000 to 2.398 million.
ADP’s September private sector payrolls came in at 213,000, above the 200,000 expected by Bloomberg. ADP said that private sector small business employment increased by 88,000 jobs from August to September. Of that group, businesses with one to 19 employees had 48,000 payrolls and businesses with 20 to 49 employees had 39,000 more payrolls in the month. Medium-sized businesses added 48,000 payrolls and large businesses added 77,000.
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TrimTabs Investment Research estimated that the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in the month of September — slightly lower than the ADP reading and down a bit more from the 231,000 that TrimTabs projected in August.
In the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, its Employment Index was 54.6%, a decrease from the August reading of 58.1%. That was still positive, but much less so.
All eyes will be on Friday’s report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Stay tuned.
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