Sanctions, and perhaps a drop in oil prices, are expected to stop Russia’s 2015 gross domestic product (GDP) from moving at all, according to the new OECD Economic Outlook. That will make it the slowest growing economy of all the major ones in the world.
Russia is not entirely alone. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s report shows several other economies are expected to barely expand next year. These include Italy at 0.2%, France at 0.5%, Germany at 1.1%, Japan at 1.1%, Brazil at 1.5% and Spain at 1.5%. The list shows how badly off some of the major economies base on GDP will suffer. It also shows the extent to which a recovery of the European Union has failed.
As to other large nations and worldwide:
Global GDP growth is projected to reach a 3.3% rate in 2014 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016, according to the Outlook. This pace is modest compared with the pre-crisis period and somewhat below the long-term average. It is also slightly lower than the last OECD forecast in September.
Among the major advanced economies, recovery remains robust in the United States, which is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2014 and around 3% in 2015 and 2016. Growth in the euro area is expected to pick up slowly, from 0.8% in 2014 to 1.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016. In Japan, growth will continue to be impacted by consumption tax hikes, and is expected to be 0.9% in 2014, 1.1% in 2015 and 0.8% in 2016.
Also:
Large emerging economies are also projected to show diverging performance over the coming years. China is rebalancing its economy while trying to achieve a controlled slowdown to more sustainable growth rates, and is projected to grow at around 7% over the 2015-16 period, down slightly from 7.4% in 2014. Growth will strengthen in India as investment picks up, from a 5.4% rate in 2014 to 6.4% in 2014 and 6.6% in 2016.
Growth in Brazil has slumped, with the economy set to expand by only 0.3% in 2014, before a recovery to 1.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. The Russian economy, hit by lower oil prices and weakening trade, will expand by only 0.7% this year, and growth is expected to fall to zero in 2015 before recovering to 2% in 2016
Not much good news.
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