Consumer Confidence Retreats from Recovery High

Economy

Published: November 25, 2014 10:50 am

Last Updated: April 27, 2020 7:28 pm

The Conference Board released its consumer confidence index for November as 88.7, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 96.5. The previous reading in October was a recovery high at 94.1. The Present Situation Index declined to 91.3 from 94.4, while the Expectations Index decreased to 87.0 from 93.8 in October.

Those surveyed who said business conditions are “good” decreased to 24.0% from 24.7%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 22.4% from 21.3%. The consumer assessment of the job market took on a similar tone: the percentage of those stating jobs are “plentiful” dropped to 16.0% from 16.5%, and people claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 29.2% from 29.0%.

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, explained the fall in consumer confidence this way:

Consumer confidence retreated in November, primarily due to reduced optimism in the short-term outlook. Consumers were somewhat less positive about current business conditions and the present state of the job market; moreover, their optimism in the short-term outlook in both areas has waned. However, income expectations were virtually unchanged and gas prices remain low, which should help boost holiday sales.

Following this theme of retreating optimism, the consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 17.6% from 19.4%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen rose to 10.7% from 8.9%.

The consumer outlook for the labor market faced a similar decline. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead dropped to 15.0% from 16.0%, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose to 16.4% from 14.1%.

Also the consumers who expected growth in their incomes moved down to 16.3% from 16.7%. The percentage of consumers who expected a drop in income was virtually unchanged at 11.4% compared to 11.3% in October.

ALSO READ: What the Preliminary GDP Reading Means for the Holidays

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