Very Different Payroll Gains From ADP and TrimTabs Ahead of Unemployment

Economy

Published: December 3, 2014 8:55 am

This Friday’s unemployment and payrolls report for November will be widely watched by economists, investors and business owners very closely. ADP and TrimTabs try to pinpoint their projections ahead of the Labor Department to offer additional insight into the jobs market. It turns out that ADP and TrimTabs were both positive, but the two offer very different views ahead of the Labor Department’s key report.

ADP has signaled that private sector employment rose by some 208,000 jobs in November from October in its latest ADP National Employment Report. Bloomberg had the consensus estimate at 225,000 for November. October’s report was revised to 233,000 from 230,000.

This ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. It is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data and aims to measure the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Separately, the ADP Small Business Report announced 101,000 jobs added in November, while the National Franchise Report announced 25,000 jobs added.

TrimTabs Investment Research projected that the U.S. economy added 306,000 jobs in November, down marginally from the 314,000 jobs added in October. TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 141 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

Bloomberg has a consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls of 230,000 in November, while the previous reading for October was 214,000. The consensus estimate for private payrolls is 225,000 for November, while the previous reading was 209,000. Bloomberg’s consensus estimate is for the unemployment rate to hold consistent with its October reading of 5.8%.

The financial markets are still looking for direction on Wednesday, with the DJIA and S&P 500 futures having fluctuated back and forth in a very tight and flattish range from red to green and back to red.

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