China announced its gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 7.4% last year, which was a quarter of a percent low based on analysis by economists and journalists. Some fear the growth rate will go lower, which would be signal that a nation with a voracious appetite for imports from much of the rest of the world would be in trouble. The “good news” byproduct would be a drop in crude demand, which might keep oil prices down around $50. China also has a voracious appetite for oil. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for December, put out in cooperation with research firm Markit, signaled that a large part of the economy of the People’s Republic remains crippled.
The data show, based on HSBC analyst conclusions:
China’s factories started 2015 on a flat note. At 49.8, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI mustered only a marginal rise from December’s seven-month low of 49.6, according to the flash estimate produced by Markit. The sub-50 reading means manufacturing conditions deteriorated for a second successive month, signalling a continuation of the near-constant malaise that has hit the Chinese manufacturing economy since mid-2011.
The numbers demonstrate that global GDP growth, already revised down for this year and next by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, will not be helped by the second largest economy in the world. Add to that the fact that Europe’s troubles have worsened, which has led the European Central Bank to begin a quantitative easing program much like the one the Federal Reserve had in place for years.
The news of trouble with the global economy keeps on coming. Another few months of this and worldwide growth will fall to a trickle.
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