GDP Revision Lower but Still Better Than Expected

Economy

Published: February 27, 2015 9:05 am

The U.S. Commerce Department has released the preliminary reading for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2%. This came in barely above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.1%, and the Wall Street Journal had a consensus estimate of 2.0%. The previous reading was 2.6%.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, private inventory investment and residential fixed investment, which were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a downturn in federal government spending and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports, which were partly offset by an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in state and local government spending.

The segments for GDP in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter:

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2%.
Durable goods increased 6.0%, compared with an increase of 9.2%.
Nondurable goods increased 3.8%, compared with an increase of 2.5%.
Services increased 4.1%, compared with an increase of 2.5%.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.9%.
Real exports of goods and services increased 3.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.5%.
Real imports of goods and services increased 10.1%, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9%.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.5% in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.9%.

Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — increased 2.1% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0%.

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