At an estimated total of $24.8 trillion, the United States will remain the world’s largest economy in 2030, but China is closing the gap between first and second place. More shocking perhaps is that India’s economy is expected to surpass Japan’s by 2030 to become the world’s third largest economy.

The U.S. economy currently accounts for 23% of total global gross domestic product (GDP), down from 25% in 2006. By 2030, the U.S. economy will account for 20% of world GDP, while China’s GDP will more than double, from 4.56% of total world GDP to 16%. The data come from the latest macroeconomic projection by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

India, currently in eighth place, is forecast to surge past Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan into third place. India’s 2014 GDP accounts for just under 3% of the world’s total. By 2030, India’s share grows to 4.6%.

Here are the top 10 global economies in 2030 as forecast by the USDA, listed in total dollars:

1. United States: $24.8 trillion
2. China: $22.2 trillion
3. India: $6.6 trillion
4. Japan: $6.4 trillion
5. Germany: $4.5 trillion
6. Brazil: $4 trillion
7. United Kingdom: $3.6 trillion
8. France: $3.3 trillion
9. Canada: $2.6 trillion
10. Russia: $2.4 trillion

The global economy is expected to rise by 3.2% year-over-year in 2015 and by another 3.7% in 2016, according to a Bloomberg survey. China is forecast to post 7% growth, with the Philippines posting the second-largest growth at around 6.3%, followed by Kenya (up 6%), India (up 5.5%) and Indonesia (up 5.4%). Combined, these five countries account for about 16% of global GDP in 2015.

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